Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? It is currently trading at a 17% probability on Polymarket. Reported volume is $74.3M. Scheduled resolution: December 31, 2026.

Last updated October 16, 2026 at 1:18 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability Price Volume Liquidity Platform Status Resolution date Chart
17% 0.17 $74.3M $426.6K Polymarket Open January 01, 2027 View chart

Market Information

Historical Market Probability

7 days ago 30 days ago 90 days ago Current
16% 16% 28% 17%

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