Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%?

Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%? It is currently trading at a 80% probability on Kalshi. Scheduled resolution: February 2, 2034.

Last updated October 16, 2026 at 4:28 PM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
80%	0.80	Kalshi	Open	February 02, 2034

Market Information

Category	Event	Source
Economics Prediction Markets	MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?	View on Kalshi

Historical Market Probability

Current
80%

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