Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027? It is currently trading at a 2% probability on Kalshi. Scheduled resolution: January 1, 2030.

Last updated October 16, 2026 at 4:28 PM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
2%	0.02	Kalshi	Open	January 01, 2030

Market Information

Category	Event	Source
World Prediction Markets	Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?	View on Kalshi

Historical Market Probability

7 days ago	30 days ago	Current
5%	5%	2%

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