Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2029?

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2029? It is currently trading at a 28% probability on Kalshi. Scheduled resolution: January 1, 2030.

Last updated October 16, 2026 at 4:35 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
28%	0.28	Kalshi	Open	January 01, 2030

Market Information

Historical Market Probability

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