Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035? It is currently trading at a 33% probability on Kalshi. Scheduled resolution: December 31, 2035.

Last updated September 1, 2026 at 1:55 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
33%	0.33	Kalshi	Open	December 31, 2035

Market Information

Historical Market Probability

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