Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2029?

Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2029? It is currently trading at a 12% probability on Kalshi. Scheduled resolution: January 1, 2030.

Last updated September 1, 2026 at 5:27 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
12%	0.12	Kalshi	Open	January 01, 2030

Market Information

Historical Market Probability

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