Will Northern Ireland confirm a reunification referendum before 2030?

Will Northern Ireland confirm a reunification referendum before 2030? It is currently trading at a 16% probability on Kalshi. Scheduled resolution: January 8, 2030.

Last updated October 29, 2026 at 5:47 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability Price Platform Status Resolution date Chart
16% 0.16 Kalshi Open January 08, 2030 View chart

Market Information

Historical Market Probability

7 days ago 30 days ago Current
11% 23% 16%

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