Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? It is currently trading at a 10% probability on Polymarket. Reported volume is $3.5M. Scheduled resolution: December 31, 2027.

Last updated October 16, 2026 at 2:18 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability Price Volume Liquidity Platform Status Resolution date Chart
10% 0.10 $3.5M $230.8K Polymarket Open January 01, 2028 View chart

Market Information

Historical Market Probability

7 days ago 30 days ago 90 days ago Current
12% 12% 11% 10%

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