Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2028?

Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2028? It is currently trading at a 36% probability on Kalshi. Scheduled resolution: January 1, 2030.

Last updated September 3, 2026 at 1:49 PM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
36%	0.36	Kalshi	Open	January 01, 2030

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