Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2029?

Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2029? It is currently trading at a 58% probability on Kalshi. Scheduled resolution: January 1, 2030.

Last updated September 1, 2026 at 2:26 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
58%	0.58	Kalshi	Open	January 01, 2030

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