Will Conservative Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

Will Conservative Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons? It is currently trading at a 42% probability on Kalshi. Scheduled resolution: October 15, 2030.

Last updated September 1, 2026 at 1:55 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
42%	0.42	Kalshi	Open	October 15, 2030

Market Information

Category	Event	Source
Political Prediction Markets	Next Canadian federal election winner?	View on Kalshi

Historical Market Probability

Current
42%

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