Will Conservative Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

Will Conservative Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons? It is currently trading at a 43% probability on Kalshi. Scheduled resolution: October 15, 2030.

Last updated October 16, 2026 at 4:35 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
43%	0.43	Kalshi	Open	October 15, 2030

Market Information

Historical Market Probability

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