Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? It is currently trading at a 41% probability on Polymarket. Reported volume is $1.4M. Scheduled resolution: December 8, 2026.

Last updated September 1, 2026 at 2:26 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Volume	Liquidity	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
41%	0.41	$1.4M	$5.2K	Polymarket	Open	December 09, 2026

Market Information

Historical Market Probability

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