Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? It is currently trading at a 21% probability on Polymarket. Reported volume is $2.4M. Scheduled resolution: December 31, 2026.

Last updated October 16, 2026 at 5:51 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Volume	Liquidity	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
21%	0.21	$2.4M	$8.2K	Polymarket	Open	January 01, 2027

Market Information

Historical Market Probability

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