Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? It is currently trading at a 6% probability on Polymarket. Reported volume is $2.4M. Scheduled resolution: December 8, 2026.

Last updated September 1, 2026 at 2:26 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Volume	Liquidity	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
6%	0.06	$2.4M	$4.9K	Polymarket	Open	December 09, 2026

Market Information

Historical Market Probability

Related Prediction Markets

• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?

Popular Prediction Markets

• Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
• Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
• Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
• Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?