Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?

Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030? It is currently trading at a 19% probability on Kalshi. Scheduled resolution: January 1, 2030.

Last updated September 3, 2026 at 1:49 PM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
19%	0.19	Kalshi	Open	January 01, 2030

Market Information

Category	Event	Source
Political Prediction Markets	Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?	View on Kalshi

Historical Market Probability

7 days ago	30 days ago	Current
22%	19%	19%

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