Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? It is currently trading at a 100% probability on Polymarket. Reported volume is $226.9K. Scheduled resolution: October 4, 2026.

Last updated October 5, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Volume	Liquidity	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
100%	1.00	$226.9K	$209.5K	Polymarket	Open	October 05, 2026

Market Information

Category	Event	Source
Political Prediction Markets	Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory	View on Polymarket

Historical Market Probability

7 days ago	30 days ago	90 days ago	Current
22%	6%	4%	100%

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