Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? It is currently trading at a 21% probability on Polymarket. Reported volume is $111.9K. Scheduled resolution: October 25, 2026.

Last updated October 15, 2026 at 5:58 PM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability Price Volume Liquidity Platform Status Resolution date Chart
21% 0.21 $111.9K $100.9K Polymarket Open October 26, 2026 View chart

Market Information

Category Event Source
Political Prediction Markets Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory View on Polymarket

Historical Market Probability

7 days ago Current
10% 21%

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