Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? It is currently trading at a 22% probability on Polymarket. Reported volume is $293.5K. Scheduled resolution: January 7, 2027.

Last updated October 18, 2026 at 7:24 AM ET

Current Market Probability

Probability	Price	Volume	Liquidity	Platform	Status	Resolution date	Chart
22%	0.22	$293.5K	$512	Polymarket	Open	January 08, 2027

Market Information

Historical Market Probability

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